Scientific Quarterly Journal of Geosciences

Scientific Quarterly Journal of Geosciences

Chaos; the fundamental difficulty in deterministic prediction of earthquakes

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Author
Ali Akbar Eslami
Institute of Geophysics, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Over centuries, various methods, generally based on either observation of precursors or models of regularly repeating buildups and releases of strain in rocks, have been used to predict earthquakes, but with little success. Failure in achieving a deterministic prediction has recently been attributed to the chaotic nature of the earthquake phenomenon. In this relation, Aki (1981) was the first who suggested that the number of earthquakes in a region has a fractal dependence on the characteristic dimension of the rupture. Later, this concept gained support from both theoretical analysis and applied techniques, such as the study of cyclic behavior of fault systems. At present, the chaos scenario for earthquake, is largely based on fractal analysis using logistic equations. For instance, in two similar hypotheses, the appearance of chaos is ascribed to the stress fluctuations in one and to the chaotic feedback interaction in the other. Since the chaotic index of a system is very sensitive to small agitations, scenario must include this property, regardless of the differences that they may have. This is the very sense that failure in deterministic prediction roots in it. Obviously, research efforts aimed at determination of nature, origin and characteristics of the interacting agents within rock bodies under variable conditions, and understanding of the governing dynamics, will lead to even more perplexing questions.
Subjects
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Scientific Quarterly Journal of Geosciences
Volume 3, Issue 12
Summer 1994, Vol. 3, No. 12
Autumn 1994
Pages 2-11