Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1 Ph.D., Faculty of Mining Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Mining Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran
4 Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical, Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The earthquake of 23 October 2011, near the Turkish city of Van, had 600 victims and caused great damages in Van, Argis, Moradiyeh and Caldiran. Review of 20th century and historical earthquakes in eastern Anatolian plate and west of Iranian plateau confirmed the activity of this area with the notable earthquake of 24 November 1976 in Caldiran. The main objective of this paper is evaluation of predictability of earthquakes in this region. Presently, the two main approaches for predicting extreme events are precursory and pattern recognition algorithms. For this study, we applied M8 algorithm that is based on pattern recognition. In this respect,a 49 point network were designed around the epicenter of Van earthquake and M8 algorithm applied to this network. The end result was four zones with some overlaps that were proposed as CTIP (current time of increase probability). This study could predict the Van earthquake with 1/1/2008 to 30/12/2012 time window, 281 km local radius and magnitude of more than 7. In addition, forward prediction in this area shows there is no alarm for magnitude 7+ in next 5 years. This study showed the strength of M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes in the Middle East. It can be concluded that using algorithms based on pattern recognition can play an important role for mitigation of damages in seismic events.
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