Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Ph.D Student, Department of Environmental Planning and Management, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate professor, Department of Environmental Planning and Management, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.


. In this study , At first, meteorological data was reviewed between 1993 and 2018. Then, using LARS-WG software, climate change modeling was compared with the output data from climate change modeling in the period 2046-2065. Considering the changes in modeling in the LARS-WG software, the average daily maximum and minimum temperature can be incremental over the period 2046-2065 and also, the average daily precipitation can be decreased. Although, the average amount of daily rainfall has decreased but number of extreme points of daily precipitation during the modeling can be increased. After extraction of maximum daily rainfall data in two periods from 1993 to 2018 and 2046 to 2065 by choosing Log Pearson's 3rd Distribution, rainfall is estimated at diffrent return periods. Finally, by comparing the amount of rainfall corresponding to the floods in these two periods, Finally, comparing the amount of rainfall corresponding to the floods in these two periods was concluded that on average, these extreme rainfalls during the period from 2046 to 2065 could increase by about 15%.


Main Subjects

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