Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Applied Geology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Applied Geology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Research Institute for Earth Sciences, Geological Survey of Iran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Land subsidence is a nonlinear and complex process that data-driven computational intelligence models can model it. In this study, the accuracy and efficiency of hybrid fuzzy logic gene expression planning hybrid model in estimating land subsidence risk and its factors in Varamin aquifer standardized. For this purpose, after selecting and gathering information from 15 factors affecting the subsidence event based on research records in the GIS environment, they were first standardized by fuzzy membership functions and then gene expression programming method was used to integrate the layers. Finally, using seven important statistical benchmarks based on radar image data, the model was validated in 4 different scenarios in input data and operators. The results showed scenario 1 with input parameters of bedrock level, Debi of pumping wells, groundwater drawdown, geology and operators, +, - ×, ÷, sqr, exp, Ln, ^ 2, ^ 3,3Rt, sin, cos, Atan, is the best model in training and testing. Accordingly, the groundwater drawdown parameter had the highest effect on land subsidence in the study area.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References
Abdollahi, S., Pourghasemi, H. R., Ghanbarian, G. A. and Safaeian, R., 2018- Prioritization of effective factors in the occurrence of land subsidence and its susceptibility mapping using an SVM model and their different kernel functions. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment.78(6), 4017–4034. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1403-6.
Alimohammadi, A., 2009- Provision and preparation of provincial planning plan, Studies of natural and environmental resources, Analysis of the status of geology, mineral resources and soil, Deputy of Planning, Tehran Governorate, Iran.
Atarzadeh, A. A., Tavana, B. and Abrazi, B., 2014- Quantitative and contamination studies of Varamin aquifer (Groundwater studies). Yekom Consulting Engineering.
Ayalew, L., Yamagishi, H., Marui, H. and Kanno, T., 2005- Landslides in Sado Island of Japan: Part II. GIS-based susceptibility mapping with comparisons of results from two methods and verifications. Engineering Geology, 81(4), 432-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.08.004.
Behyari, M., Alizadeh, A. and Mahmoodi, S., 2017- Evaluation of the effect active structures on land subsidence risk using multi-criteria decision models. Journal of Advanced Applied Geology, 7(24), 49-56. https://doi.org/10.22055/aag.2017.13229.
Berberian, M. and King, G. C. P., 1981- Towards a paleogeography and tectonic evolution of Iran. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 18(2), 210-265. https://doi.org/10.1139/e81-019.
Burbey, T. J., 2002- The influence of faults in basin-fill deposits on land subsidence, Las Vegas Valley, Nevada, USA. Hydrogeology Journal, 10(5), 525–538. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-002-0215-7.
Calderhead, A. I., Therrien, R., Rivera, A., Martel, R. and Garfias, J., 2011- Simulating pumping-induced regional land subsidence with the use of InSAR and field data in the Toluca Valley, Mexico. Advances in Water Resources, 34(1), 83-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.09.017.
Chanapathi, T., Thatikonda, S., Pandey, V. P. and Shrestha, S., 2019- Fuzzy-based approach for evaluating groundwater sustainability of Asian cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 44, 321-331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.09.027.
Chen, B., Gong, H., Lei, K., Li, J., Zhou, C., Gao, M., Guan, H. and Lv, W., 2019- Land subsidence lagging quantification in the main exploration aquifer layers in Beijing plain, China. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 75, 54-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2018.09.003.
Chen, Y., Shu, L. and Burbey, T. J., 2013- Composite Subsidence Vulnerability Assessment Based on an Index Model and Index Decomposition Method. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 19(3), 674-698. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2012.691405.
Choi, J. K., Kim, K. D., Lee, S. and Won, J. S., 2010- Application of a fuzzy operator to susceptibility estimations of coal mine subsidence in Taebaek City, Korea. Environmental Earth Sciences, 59(5), 1009–1022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0093-6.
Ferreira, C., 2001- Gene expression programming: a new adaptive algorithm for solving problems. arXiv preprint cs/0102027. http://www.gene-expression-programming.com/webpapers/GEP.pdf.
Ferreira, C., 2006- Gene expression programming: mathematical modeling by an artificial intelligence. Studies in Computational Intelligence, 21. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-32849-1.
Galloway, D. L. and Burbey, T. J., 2011- Review: Regional land subsidence accompanying groundwater extraction. Hydrogeology Journal, 19(8), 1459–1486. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-011-0775-5.
Gu, T. and Wang, G., 2010- Application of fuzzy neural networks for predicting seismic subsidence coefficient of loess subgrade, 2010 Sixth International Conference on Natural Computation, pp. 1556-1559. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICNC.2010.5583718.
Hu, R. L., Yue, Z. Q., Wang, L. C. and Wang, S. J., 2004- Review on current status and challenging issues of land subsidence in China. Engineering Geology, 76(1), 65-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.06.006.
Hyndman, R. J. and Koehler, A. B., 2006- Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679-688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001.
IIEES, 2010- An analysis of source parameters of earthquakes in Tehran region. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology. http://www.iiees.ac.ir/en/?s=varamin.
Karsli, F., Atasoy, M., Yalcin, A., Reis, S., Demir, O. and Gokceoglu, C., 2009- Effects of land-use changes on landslides in a landslide-prone area (Ardesen, Rize, NE Turkey). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 156, 241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-008-0481-5.
Kim, K., Lee, S. and Oh, H., 2009- Prediction of ground subsidence in Samcheok City, Korea using artificial neural networks and GIS. Environmental Geology, 58(1), 61-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1492-9.
Lashkaripour, G., Rostami barani, H., Kohandel, A. and Torshizi, H., 2006- Decline in groundwater levels and land subsidence in the kashmar plain, International Conference on Earth sciences, Tehran, Iran. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294688542_Decline_in_groundwater_levels_and_land_subsidence_in_the_Kashmar_plain
Lehmann, E.L. and Casella, G., 1998- Theory of point estimation (2nd ed.), Springer-Verlag. New York https://doi.org/10.1007/b98854.
Lixin, Y., Fang, Z., He, X., Shijie, C., Wei, W. and Qiang, Y., 2011- Land subsidence in Tianjin, China. Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences, 62(6), 1151–1161. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0604-5.
Mahmoudpour, M., Khamehchiyan, M., Nikudel, M. and Gassemi, M., 2013- Characterization of regional land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawals in Tehran, Iran. Geopersia, 3(2), 49-62. https://doi.org/10.22059/jgeope.2013.36014.
Minderhoud, P. S. J., Coumou, L., Erban, L. E., Middelkoop, H., Stouthamer, E. and Addink, E. A., 2018- The relation between land use and subsidence in the Vietnamese Mekong delta. Science of The Total Environment, 634, 715-726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.372.
Mohebbi Tafreshi, A., Mohebbi Tafreshi, G. and Bijeh Keshavarzi, M. H., 2018- Qualitative zoning of groundwater to assessment suitable drinking water using fuzzy logic spatial modelling via GIS. Water and Environment Journal, 32(4), 607-620. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/wej.12358.
Mokhtari, H. and Espahbod, M., 2009- The Investigation of hydrodynamic parameters potentiality of the Varamin Plan regarding the variation of salinity gradient Journal of the Earth, 4(2), 27-47. https://www.sid.ir/En/Journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=202038.
Motagh, M., Djamour, Y., Walter, T., Wetzel, H., Zschau, J. and Arabi, S., 2007- Land subsidence in Mashhad Valley, northeast Iran: results from InSAR, levelling and GPS. Geophysical Journal International, 168(2), 518-526. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03246.x.
Mousavi, S. M., Shamsai, A., Naggar, M. H. E. and Khamehchian, M., 2001- A GPS-based monitoring program of land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in Iran. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 28(3), 452-464. https://doi.org/10.1139/l01-013.
Nakhaei, M., Mohebbi Tafreshi, A. and Mohebbi Tafreshi, G., 2019- Modeling and predicting changes of TDS concentration in Varamin aquifer using GMS software. Journal of Advanced Applied Geology, 9(31), 25-37. https://doi.org/10.22055/aag.2019.27539.1903.
Nejatijahromi, Z., Nassery, H., Hosono, T., Nakhaei, M., Alijani, F. and Okumura, A., 2019- Groundwater nitrate contamination in an area using urban wastewaters for agricultural irrigation under arid climate condition, southeast of Tehran, Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 221, 397-414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.04.015.
NGOI, 2008- Topography map (1:50000). National Geographic Organization of Iran. http://www.ngo-org.ir/
Oh, H. J. and Lee, S., 2010- Assessment of ground subsidence using GIS and the weights-of-evidence model. Engineering Geology, 115(1), 36-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2010.06.015.
Oh, H. J., Syifa, M., Lee, C. W. and Lee, S., 2019- Land Subsidence Susceptibility Mapping Using Bayesian, Functional, and Meta-Ensemble Machine Learning Models. Applied Sciences, 9(6), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9061248.
Pacheco, J., Arzate, J., Rojas, E., Arroyo, M., Yutsis, V. and Ochoa, G., 2006- Delimitation of ground failure zones due to land subsidence using gravity data and finite element modeling in the Querétaro valley, México. Engineering Geology, 84(3), 143-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.12.003.
Parhizkar, S., Ajdari, K., Kazemi, G.A. and Emamgholizadeh, S., 2015- Predicting water level drawdown and assessment of land subsidence in Damghan aquifer by combining GMS and GEP models. Geopersia, 5(1), 63-80. https://doi.org/10.7508/geop.2015.01.007.
Park, I., Choi, J., Jin Lee, M. and Lee, S., 2012- Application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to ground subsidence hazard mapping. Computers & Geosciences, 48, 228-238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.005.
Phien-wej, N., Giao, P. H. and Nutalaya, P., 2006- Land subsidence in Bangkok, Thailand. Engineering Geology, 82(4), 187-201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.10.004.
Putra, D. P. E., Setianto, A., Keokhampui, K. and Fukuoka, H., 2011- Land Subsidence Risk Asseessment in Karst Region, Case Study: Rongkop, Gunung Kidul, Yogyakarta-Indonesia Mitteilungen zur Ingenieurgeologie und Hydrogeologie-Festschrift zum 60. Geburtstag von Univ.Prof. Dr. Rafig Azzam., RWTH Aachen University, German, pp. 39-50. https://repository.ugm.ac.id/id/eprint/134971.
Rafie, M. and Samimi Namin, F., 2015- Prediction of subsidence risk by FMEA using artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system. International Journal of Mining Science and Technology, 25(4), 655-663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2015.05.021.
Raines, G. L., Sawatzky, D. L. and Bonham-Carter, G. F., 2010- New fuzzy logic tools in ArcGIS 10, ArcGIS 10.1. http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0410/files/fuzzylogic.pdf.
Rajabi, A. M. and Ghorbani, E., 2016- Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in Arak plain, Markazi province, Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(738), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2753-7.
Ranjbar, A. and Ehteshami, M., 2019- Development of an Uncertainty Based Model to Predict Land Subsidence Caused by Groundwater Extraction (Case Study: Tehran Basin). Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 37(4), 3205–3219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-019-00837-w.
Rezaee, P., 2016- Forecast locations at risk of subsidence plain Kermanshah. The Journal of Spatial Planning, 20(1), 235-251. http://journals.modares.ac.ir/article-21-4935-en.html.
Sadeghi, A., Fonodi, M., Davari, M., Nourozi, M., Zakili, F. and Keihani, A., 2006- One hundred thousandth geology map of Varamin, Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration of Iran. (in pesian). https://gsi.ir/fa/map/207/-%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86
SCI, 2019- Population of the country in terms of gender in urban and rural areas. Statistical Center of Iran. https://www.amar.org.ir/english.
SCWMRI, 2010- Erosion, land use and soil maps (1:250000). Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute. https://www.environmental-expert.com/companies/soil-conservation-and-watershed-management-research-institute-scwmri-24937
Sentinel-1, 2015- https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-1.
Shadfar, S., Nasiri, E., Chitgar, S. and Ahmadi, A., 2016- Hazard zonation of Land subsidence using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) case study (city of Buin Zahra). Territory, 12(48), 101-116. http://sarzamin.srbiau.ac.ir/article_9656.html.
Shemshaki, A., Boulourchi, M. J. and Entezam Soltani, I., 2006- The study of land subsidence  in Tehran plain and its casual factors, The 24th Earth Sciences meeting, Geological survey and mineral explorations of Iran. https://www.civilica.com/Paper-GSI24-GSI24_071.html.
Suh, J., Choi, Y. E., Park, H. D., Yoon, S. H. and Go, W. R., 2013- Subsidence Hazard Assessment at the Samcheok Coalfield, South Korea: A Case Study Using GIS. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, 19(1), 69-83. https://publons.com/journal/1048/geology.
Tien Bui, D., Shahabi, H., Shirzadi, A., Chapi, K., Pradhan, B., Chen, W., Khosravi, K., Panahi, M., Bin Ahmad, B. and Saro, L., 2018- Land Subsidence Susceptibility Mapping in South Korea Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Sensors (Basel), 18(8), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/s18082464.
TRWA, 2018- Report of Groundwater Resources Studies in Varamin Area (in Persian).Tehran Regional Water Authority.
UNESCO, 2018-Proposal for the establishment of the land subsidence international initative (LaSII). United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, International Hydrological Programme, Paris. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwit4vSPqs3jAhUisaQKHe_NA-kQFjABegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.unesco.org%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fic-xiii_ref_5_land_subsidence.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0_RGemY4ifoJiBQDz7dBnN.
Wang, G., Qin, L., Li, G. and Chen, L., 2009- Landfill site selection using spatial information technologies and AHP: A case study in Beijing, China. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(8), 2414-2421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.12.008.
Wang, H. W., Lin, C. W., Yang, C. Y., Ding, C. F., Hwung, H. H. and Hsiao, S. C., 2018- Assessment of Land Subsidence and Climate Change Impacts on Inundation Hazard in Southwestern Taiwan. Irrigation and Drainage, 67(S1), 26-37. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2206.
Yu, H. M., Wu, Y. X., Shen, J. S. and Zhou, A. N., 2018- Assessment of Social-Economic Risk of Chinese Dual Land Use System Using Fuzzy AHP. Sustainability, 10(7): 2541. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072451.
Zadeh, L. A., 1965- Fuzzy Sets. Inf. Control., 8(353), 338–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X.