فصلنامه علمی علوم زمین

فصلنامه علمی علوم زمین

مقایسه معیارهای تنشی برای برآورد نزدیک‌به‌آنی الگوی مکانی پس‌لرزه‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه نقشه‌برداری، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
10.22071/gsj.2025.538983.2215
چکیده
پس‌لرزه‌ها در اثر تغییرات تنش ناشی از زمین‌لرزه‌های اصلی پیشین رخ می‌دهند. اگرچه قوانین اوموری (Utsu, 1961)  و بث (Bath, 1965) ویژگی‌های زمانی و بزرگ‌ترین پس‌لرزه را به خوبی توصیف می‌کنند، برآورد الگوهای مکانی آنها چالشی باقی مانده است. این پژوهش با هدف معرفی معیارهای تنش مناسب برای برآورد نزدیک به آنی الگوی مکانی پس‌لرزه‌ها، رابطه مکانی آن‌ها را با 6 معیار نرده‌ای تنش شامل ناورداهای اول، دوم و سوم تانسور تنش، بیشینه تنش برشی، فون‌میزس و تنش شکست کولمب (ΔCFS) در ۱۹۹ توزیع لغزش همالرزه‌ای جهانی بررسی کرده است. در محاسبه ΔCFS، جهت‌گیری صفحه گسل گیرنده معادل میانگین جهت‌گیری گسل اصلی و ضریب اصطکاک 0/4 در نظر گرفته شد. دقت طبقه‌بندی مناطق دارای پس‌لرزه و فاقد آن با تحلیل منحنی ویژگی عملکرد گیرنده (ROC) ارزیابی شد. سطح زیر منحنی ROC یعنی AUC برای بیشینه تنش برشی و فون‌میزس 0/78، برای ΔCFS 0/63 و برای ناورداهای اول تا سوم تانسور تنش به‌ترتیب 0/55، 0/37 و 0/49 به دست آمد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد معیارهای بیشینه تنش برشی و فون‌میزس، که مستقل از جهت‌گیری گیرنده هستند، به‌طور معناداری از ΔCFS و ناورداهای تنش عملکرد بهتری دارند و می‌توانند به عنوان معیارهای بهینه برای برآورد نزدیک به آنی الگوهای مکانی پس‌لرزه‌ها مورد استفاده قرار گیرند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


Asayesh B. M., Zafarani H., Hainzl S., Sharma S., 2023. Effects of large aftershocks on spatial aftershock forecasts during the 2017–2019 western Iran sequence, Geophysical Journal International, 232(1), 147–161, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac333.
Asayesh, B. M., Zafarani, H., and Tatar, M., 2020. Coulomb stress changes and secondary stress triggering during the 2003 (Mw 6.6) Bam (Iran) earthquake. Tectonophysics, 775, 228304.
Bath, M., 1965. Lateral inhomogeneities in the upper mantle, Tectonophysics, 2, 483 – 514.
Berberian, M., 1982. Aftershock tectonics of the 1978 Tabas-e-Golshan (Iran) earthquake sequence: a documented active ‘thin-and thick-skinned tectonic’case. Geophysical Journal International, 68(2), 499-530.
Cohee, B. P., and Beroza, G. C., 1994. Slip distribution of the 1992 Landers earthquake and its implications for earthquake source mechanics. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84(3), 692–712.
Deng, J., and Sykes, L. R., 1996. Triggering of 1812 Santa Barbara earthquake by a great San Andreas shock: Implications for future seismic hazards in southern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1155–1158. doi: 10.1029/96GL00738.
Deng, J., and Sykes, L. R., 1997a. Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes: A 200-year perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 9859–9886. doi: 10.1029/96JB03897.
Deng, J., and Sykes, L. R., 1997b. Stress evolution in southern California and triggering of moderate-, small-, and micro-size earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 24,411–24,435. doi: 10.1029/97JB02127.
DeVries, P.M., Vi´egas, F., Wattenberg, M. and Meade, B.J., 2018. Deep learning of aftershock patterns following large earthquakes, Nature, 560(7720), 632–634.
Fawcett, T., 2006. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861–874. doi: 10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010.
Felzer, K. R., and Brodsky, E. E., 2005. Testing the stress shadow hypothesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S09. doi: 10.1029/2004JB003277
Felzer, K. R., and Brodsky, E. E., 2006. Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress. Nature, 441(7094), 735–738. doi: 10.1038/nature04799.
Freed, A. M., 2005. Earthquake triggering by static, dynamic, and postseismic stress transfer. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 33 (1), 335–367. doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505.
Gheitanchi, M. R., and Raeesi, M., 2004. Analysis of the 1997 Zirkuh (Ghean-Birjand) aftershock sequence in east-central Iran. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 17(1), 38-46.
Hainzl, S., Enescu, B., Cocco, M., Woessner, J., Catalli, F., Wang, R., and Roth, F., 2009. Aftershock modeling based on uncertain stress calculations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B05309. doi: 10.1029/2008JB006011.
Hainzl, S., Zoller, G. and Wang, R., 2010. Impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity, J. geophys. Res., 115(B5), doi:10.1029/2008JB006224.
Hardebeck, J. L., Nazareth, J. J., and Hauksson, E., 1998. The static stress change triggering model: Constraints from two southern California aftershock sequences. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 24,427–24,437. doi: 10.1029/98JB00573.
Hardebeck J. L., Llenos A. L., Michael A. J., Page M. T., Schneider M. and Elst N. J., 2024. Aftershock Forecasting, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 52, 61-84, doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-102129.
Harris, R.A. and Simpson, R.W., 1992. Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake, Nature, 360(6401), 251–254.
Harris, R. A., and Simpson, R. W., 2002. The 1999 Mw 7.1 hector mine, california, earthquake: A test of the stress shadow hypothesis? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(4), 1497–1512.
Hartzell, S., and C. Mendoza. 1991. Application of an Iterative Least-Squares Wave-Form Inversion of Strong-Motion and Teleseismic Records to the 1978 Tabas, Iran, Earthquake. Bull. Seis. Soc. Am 81(2), 305-331.
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D., 2005. Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering.
Jacques, E., King, G. C., Tapponnier, P., Ruegg, J. C., and Manighetti, I., 1996. Seismic activity triggered by stress changes after the 1978 events in the Asal Rift, Djibouti. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 2481–2484. doi: 10.1029/96GL02261.
Jaeger, J., Cook, N., and Zimmerman, R., 2007. Fundamental of Rock Mechanics. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511735349.
Jamalreyhani, M., Buyukakpınar, P., Cesca, S., Dahm, T., Sudhaus, H., Rezapour, M., Isken, M.P., Maleki Asayesh, B. and Heimann, S., 2020. Seismicity related to the eastern sector of Anatolian escape tectonic: the example of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.77 Elazı˘g-Sivrice earthquake, Solid Earth Discuss., doi:10.5194/se-2020-55, 2020, 1–22.
Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D., 1998. Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 24,453–24,467. doi: 10.1029/98JB00699.
Kilb, D., Gomberg, J., and Bodin, P., 2000. Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stress. Nature, 408(6812), 570–574. doi: 35046046/10/1038.
King, G. C., Stein, R., and Lin, J., 1994. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84(3), 935–953.
Lin, J. and Stein, R.S., 2004. Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults, J. geophys. Res., 109(B2), doi:10.1029/2003JB002607.
Lorenzo-Martín, F., Roth, F., and Wang, R., 2006. Elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault zone. Tectonophysics, 424(3-4), 271–289. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.046.
Mai, P. M., and Thingbaijam, K. K. S., 2014. Srcmod: An online database of finite-fault rupture models. Seismological Research Letters, 85(6), 1348–1357.
Mallman, E. P., and Zoback, M. D., 2007. Assessing elastic Coulomb stress transfer models using seismicity rates in southern California and southwestern Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, B03304. doi: 10.1029/2005JB004076.
Meade, B. J., DeVries, P. M., Faller, J., Viegas, F., and Wattenberg, M., 2017. What is better than coulomb failure stress? A ranking of scalar static stress triggering mechanisms from 105 mainshock-aftershock pairs. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11–409. doi: 10.1002/2017GL075875.
Meier, M. A., Werner, M. J., Woessner, J., and Wiemer, S., 2014. A search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake sequence. Journal of Geophysical Research, 119, 3354–3370. doi: 10.1002/2013JB010385.
Mignan, A., and Broccardo, M., 2019. One neuron versus deep learning in aftershock prediction. Nature, 574(7776), E1–E3.
Nikkhoo M., Walter T. R., 2015. Triangular dislocation: an analytical, artefact-free solution, Geophysical Journal International, 201(2), 1119–1141. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv035.
Nostro, C., Cocco, M., and Belardinelli, M. E., 1997. Static stress changes in extensional regimes: An application to southern Apennines (Italy). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 87(1), 234–248.
Parsons, T., Stein, R. S., Simpson, R. W., and Reasenberg, P. A., 1999. Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 20,183–20,202. doi: 10.1029/1999JB900056.
Poiata, N., Miyake, H., Koketsu, K., and Hikima, K., 2012. Strong‐Motion and Teleseismic Waveform Inversions for the Source Process of the 2003 Bam, Iran, Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1477-1496.
Pollitz, F. F., and Sacks, I. S., 2002. Stress triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by transient deformation following the 1992 Landers earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(4), 1487–1496. doi: 10.1785/0120000918.
Prejean, S. G., Hill, D. P., Brodsky, E. E., Hough, S. E., Johnston, M. J. S., Malone, S. D., … Richards-Dinger, K. B., 2004. Remotely triggered seismicity on the United States west coast following the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(6B), S348–S359.
Reasenberg, P. A., and Simpson, R. W., 1992. Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake. Science, 255(5052), 1687–1690. doi: 10.1126/science.255.5052.1687.
Segou, M., and Parsons, T., 2020. A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to probe the physics of aftershocks, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 110(2), 863–873.
Sharma, S., Hainzl, S., Zoeller, G., and Holschneider, M., 2020. Is Coulomb stress the best choice for aftershock forecasting?, J. geophys. Res., 125(9), doi: 10.1029/2020JB019553.
Steacy, S., Nalbant, S.S., McCloskey, J., Nostro, C., Scotti, O., and Baumont, D., 2005. Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?, J. geophys. Res., 110(B5), doi:10.1029/2004JB003356.
Stein, R. S., Barka, A. A., and Dieterich, J. H., 1997. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, 128(3), 594–604. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x.
Stramondo, S., Kyriakopoulos, C., Bignami, C., Chini, M., Melini, D., Moro, M., et al., 2011. Did the september 2010 (darfield) earthquake trigger the february 2011 (christchurch) event? Scientific reports, 1, 98.
Sudhaus, H., Jònsson, S., 2011. Source model for the 1997 Zirkuh earthquake (Mw=7.2) in Iran derived from JERS and ERS InSAR observations. ‐ Geophys. Jour. Intern., 185(2), 676‐692.
To, A., Bürgmann, R., and Pollitz, F., 2004. Postseismic deformation and stress changes following the 1819 Rann of Kachchh, India earthquake: Was the 2001 Bhuj earthquake a triggered event? Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L13609. doi: 10.1029/2004GL020220.
Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Reasenberg, P. A., Dieterich, J. H., and Yoshida, A., 1998. Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 24,543–24,565.
Toda, S., 2008. Coulomb stresses imparted by the 25 March 2007 M w= 6.6 Noto-Hanto, Japan, earthquake explain its ‘butterfly’ distribution of aftershocks and suggest a heightened seismic hazard, Earth, Planets Space, 60(10), 1041–1046.
Utsu, T., 1961, A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys. Mag. 30, 521–605.
van der Elst, N. J., and Brodsky, E. E., 2010. Connecting nearfield and far-field earthquake triggering to dynamic strain. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, B07311. doi: 10.1029/2009JB006681.
Zhijun L., Gege J., Hongmei Y., Chen C., Jiyong H., 2023. Aftershock predict based on convolution neural networks. Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science, 6(12), 90-96. doi: 10.25236/AJCIS.2023.061210.
دوره 36، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 139
بهار 1405، دوره سی و ششم، شماره 1، پیاپی 139
بهار 1405
صفحه 57-78

فایل‌های تکمیلی/اضافی