عنوان مقاله [English]
Many attempts have been done to prepare active faults map of the greater Tehran region, in order to evaluate of probabilistic seismic hazard of the region. Insufficient data about the depth and nature of seismic layer, lack of enough numerical information about the crustal deformation rate, and little knowledge about the background seismicity and characteristics of seismic sources, such as seismogenic faults, magnitudes and occurrence interval act as barriers to achieve this evaluation perfectly. In this paper, based on the numerous researches done in seismology, geodynamic and paleoseismology during the last decade, attempt has been done to provide statistical analysis on the basis of paleoseismological studies on major faults of the region such as Astaneh, Firouzkuh, Mosha, Taleghan, North Tehran, Pishva and North Rey as well as the Kahrizak scarps. It is worth to mention that reactivation of any of the mentioned faults could be assigned to the Tehran earthquake, certainly with completely different size affects. According to basis of the extensive paleoseismological data together with morphotectonic investigations in the Central Alborz, the occurrence of a 6.5-7.2 magnitude earthquake during the next 50 years, in the vicinity of Tehran might be probable.